The little white line at the left is a piece of our atmosphere, which we imagine to be enlarged as shown below.
This diagram is more appropriate for a shallow layer of water than it is for the Earth's atmosphere.
“When our results concerning the instability of nonperiodic flow are applied to the atmosphere, which is ostensibly nonperiodic, they indicate that prediction of the sufficiently distant future is impossible by any method, unless the present conditions are known exactly. In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness of weather observations, precise very-long-range forecasting would seem to be non-existent.”
— Edward N. Lorenz
The computer used by Lorenz was perhaps the machine of
choice from 1956 (when the first one was sold) through the
1960s. Here are a few specs:
Components: 113 vacuum tubes, 1450 diodes
Clock speed: 120 kHz
Dimensions: 44" wide, 26" deep, 33" high
Weight: 800 lbs.
Price: in excess of $40,000
According to Professor Lorenz, the idea for this unusual waterwheel apparently originated with Willem Malkus, now an emeritus Professor of Mathematics at M.I.T.
Here is a video of Malkus's waterwheel in operation. Keep your eye on the yellow bucket to see what the wheel does.
Finally, here is a sound file of “Lorenz music”, with X (or Ω) being represented by the organ, Y (or η) by the oboe, and Z (or ζ) by the glockenspiel.
During my talk, Bob Kraft asked a key question: “What time scales are we talking about here?” Although I had worked out the scaling for the waterwheel (since I wanted to make one), I had not checked out the time scaling described in Lorenz's paper, and so did not know the answer, but intuitively I thought it might be on the order of days or maybe a week or two, since that's about how long a weather forecast is good for.
It turns out that if we take H = 10 Km (the scale height of our atmosphere), the natural unit of time (about the time for air to convect through the distance H in the Lorenz model), is approximately 10,000 years! Uh-oh. Something is clearly amiss.
Although Lorenz concludes from his results that “precise very-long-range forecasting would seem to be non-existent” (see slide 11), he also notes, in a comment at the end of his paper, that “There remains the very important question as to how long is ‘very-long-range.’ Our results do not give the answer for the atmosphere; conceivably it could be a few days or a few centuries.”
I've written a few thoughts that may relate to this comment, for those who may be interested. You can peruse them here. I would warmly welcome any thoughts you may have.